Opinion: Raila Lost the 2022 Election the Day He Shook Hands with Uhuru “It Was a Long Con”

As Kenyans digest the outcome of the 2022 general election and continue with their lives, the contest has left many lessons for ordinary citizens, current politicians and aspiring leaders. Some Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Coalition Party leaders have claimed that retired President Uhuru Kenyatta conned Raila into losing the election.

They say this was in the pretence of assisting him in clinching the seat. Some said that in politics, the state never misses the target; if it does, then it is by design.

I take a step-by-step look into events that may suggest that retired President Kenyatta and President William Ruto hatched a perfect con to fool Raila and ensure Ruto becomes the fifth president of Kenya:

1. The Handshake
Someone once said that when a deal is too good, think twice. This would have been the starting point for Raila Odinga when the then president Uhuru Kenyatta invited him to Harambee House for a talk. The events of 9 March 2018 culminated in ‘The Handshake’, a brotherly reconciliation between the two.

This was the beginning of Raila’s loss. From that time, he took all baggage from the Jubilee government just by associating with President Kenyatta. On the other hand, Ruto disowned the government and its failures despite being a Deputy President to the last day of the government. He created a narrative of a victim of discrimination and harassment by the government. With Raila being a friend of the government, he would definitely lose the support of a considerable percentage of voters.

Raila had a better chance of winning the presidency without shaking Uhuru’s hand and without the retired president’s support. He would have staged a fierce opposition during President Uhuru Kenyatta’s second term, something that would have earned him early votes from the president’s backyard. If President William Ruto won Mt. Kenya votes without Uhuru’s support, Raila didn’t need President Kenyatta’s support. He needed a neutral figure from Mt. Kenya who would convince the people of the region about his agenda for them.

Uhuru’s public endorsement of Raila Odinga as his preferred presidential candidate completely shattered the former’s dream of becoming a head of state. You would expect that with the narrative that was being driven by President William Ruto and his campaign team (being harassed and kicked out of the government), Ruto would get sympathy votes.

2. Lost in Uhuru’s Glorious Moments

While the then Deputy President William Ruto was busy campaigning all through his second as the country’s second-in-command, ODM Party leader Raila Odinga was busy escorting Uhuru to visit, inspect and launch government projects. Anyone in a head-to-head race must keenly look at the competitor and counter their moves with strategic actions in line with the competition.

Raila Odinga lost a lot of time to convince the electorate about his agenda and marshall the election grassroots leaders from his party. Uhuru may have made sure that Raila was busy with him, hence giving Ruto a solo smooth moment to run a robust campaign race ahead of Raila. This is why Kenya Kwanza and UDA Party, a new outfit, have a higher number of MPs, Senators and MCAs than the so-called experienced ODM.

By the time Raila and his brother, Uhuru Kenyatta, were launching Azimio la Umoja, Ruto had solidified his support base and strong grassroots candidates in many parts of the country. This is another way Raila began losing the 2022 election.

3. Uhuru endorsing Martha Karua as Raila’s running mate

Many people have delved into the value Martha Karua brought to Raila Odinga regarding votes. Elections are truly about votes. Karua could not help Raila garner the majority of Central Kenya votes that he badly needed. She had less influence on the voters, demonstrated by the fact that she lost the gubernatorial race to Anne Waiguru in 2017.

If a running mate is not bringing votes on board, then there is no need to waste time thinking about that running mate. This is an equation that President William Ruto got right. If Raila Odinga lost in Martha Karua’s home polling station (Mugumo Primary School) and constituency (Gichugu), if he lost in President Uhuru Kenyatta’s home polling station (Mutomo Primary School) and constituency (Gatundu South), then it was indeed a long con.

Uhuru, with his experience in politics, could not fail to identify this issue and advise Raila appropriately on the choice of a running mate.

4. Azimio’s Plan to protect their votes was not accurate

Who goes to a serious competitive poll like the 2022 general election without agents in all polling stations? As the Azimio la Umoja – One Kenya Coalition Party, the then President Uhuru Kenyatta knew the importance of having agents. Raila had this knowledge too. You can’t convince anyone that the two leaders, together with their network of influential figures across the country, could not get adequate funds to hire agents. Whatever happened is better known to them, but without agents in all the polling stations, you can’t verify whether votes were stolen, stashed, or double-presented to some voters or not.

The loyalty of agents was also another issue that could not be ignored. Elections are won at the polling centres. Agents become an integral part of your plan if you suspect that your votes will be stolen or there may be a hidden agenda at polling stations in favour of your competitor. Raila and his team failed miserably on this one.

Opinion piece by Paul Kioko, a businessman.

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